SUPPLY AND DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY

New supply included two office projects – Vena (15,400 sqm) and the Studio B building (24,000 sqm) – as well as the modernization of a small building on Przemyslowa Street. Other developments planned for this year include Skyliner II and projects on Pulawska and Przemyslowa Streets.

At the same time, activity on the developers’ side fell to about 120,000 sqm, the lowest level ever. As much as 89% of the projects under construction are located in central zones.

– We are currently seeing the lowest level of development activity on record. We estimate that over the next three years, the total volume of new space could be as low as 217,000 sqm. This is no longer just a temporary slowdown, but a deep supply gap that will limit tenant choice in the coming quarters. With such limited supply, the importance of existing, well-located buildings, which find tenants faster, is growing – says Daniel Czarnecki, Head of Landlord Representation at Savills.

VACANCY AND SPACE AVAILABILITY

The limited availability of space is particularly evident in central locations. At the end of March, the averaged vacancy rate in the capital was 9.5%. A total of 597,000 sq. ft. was available on the market. sq. m. offices, and net absorption was just over 10,000. sq. m.

– Tenants today face increasingly difficult choices. On the one hand, they want to secure attractive offices that will help attract employees; on the other hand, the availability of space in central locations is shrinking rapidly – Jaroslaw Pilch, Head of Tenant Representation at Savills, comments. – The vacancy rate in the center is already only 6.5%. Companies that postpone decisions must take into account that in a year or two the choice will be noticeably smaller and they will have less flexibility when negotiating.

In response to the growing complexity of the office selection process, Savills is also developing tools to support tenants in their decision-making. The new officemarket.pl platform uses mechanisms based on artificial intelligence to match offers based on the user’s self-described needs, as well as to compare offices and generate summaries in the form of reports. The tool covers both traditional offices and flexible space, enabling analysis of office availability not only in Warsaw, but throughout Poland.

RENTS UNDER UPWARD PRESSURE

Declining space availability and limited supply are translating into rising rents. In the best buildings in the center, they currently amount to 23-28 EUR/sqm/month, and in projects under construction they even reach 30 EUR. In Służewiec, rents remain stable at 13.5-15.5 EUR/sq.m./month. The authors of the report point out that maintenance fees in the best locations reach 30-40 PLN/sq.m./month.

DEMAND AND TRANSACTION STRUCTURE

Demand for office space in Q1 amounted to 133.8 thousand sq. m., which is 9% lower year-on-year and below the average for the first quarters of 2020-2025 (159.1 thousand sq. m.). Tenant activity was relatively evenly distributed between central (54%) and non-central (46%) locations. The most space was leased in the Center zone (57.7 thousand sqm), followed by Służewiec (25.7 thousand sqm) and the CBD (14.4 thousand sqm).

The structure of demand shows the dominance of new contracts (51%), with a significant share of renegotiations (39%). Expansions and pre-let contracts were less important, accounting for 9% and 3% of volume, respectively.

– Although the beginning of the year has been quieter, this does not change the overall market picture. With limited supply, even moderate demand will have a real impact on space availability and rent levels. In the coming quarters, we can expect a greater share of renegotiations – Wioleta Wojtczak, Head of Research at Savills, adds.

MARKET PERSPECTIVE

In the long term, the limited number of new projects and the concentration of investments in the center will be key factors shaping the market, both on the side of space availability and lease terms.